Nowadays, it seems that we are all praying for hearing some good news. Yet, experts are predicting that in the coming months, things could get even worse!
While struggling with the fears brought by the COVID-19 pandemic, they warn that we might witness a record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season this year!
It is expected to be quite active, with record-high temperatures in many parts of the world’s oceans.
On April 21, 2020, Penn State’s Earth System Science Center (ESSC) revealed that this year, (2020) there might be between 15-24 actual named tropical cyclones. Since 2012, we have not had 19 or more named storms in a year.
They used the statistical model of Kozar et al. and explained:
“The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.1 °C in early to mid-April 2020 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2020 hurricane season, (b) the development of mild El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-negative conditions by boreal late summer and early fall 2020 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April 2020), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in boreal fall/winter 2020-2021.
If no La Niña develops, then the prediction will be slightly lower: 18.3 +/- 4.3 storms (range of 14-23 storms, with a best guess of 19).”
We predict one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record (20±4 named storms) | “The 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Penn State ESSC Forecast”: https://t.co/MNs6uvpX0Z@Penn_State @PSUClimate @PSUEarth @PSUEMS pic.twitter.com/VfKa89cuNl
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) April 27, 2020
Many experts agree that in the next few months, the Pacific will cool and will eventually prevent an El Niño, La Niña’s opposite half, and a weather pattern that protects the Atlantic from storms.
Over the last several years, tropical storms have aggravated, mainly due to climate change.
The seasonal outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also forecast that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be unusually active, with 13-19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. In such a case, it could be the fifth consecutive above-average hurricane season, beating the previous record of four consecutive seasons from 1998 to 2001.
Colorado State University predicted a total of 16 named storms anticipated to form in the Atlantic Basin overall, including tropical storms, which is again above the average of 12 named storms.
AccuWeather, based in State College, Pa., forecast above-average season too, with 14-18 named storms, while Penn State University believes this will be one of the most active Atlantic tropical seasons on record.
Axios, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is currently preparing a document that lists preparations for surviving a pandemic during hurricane season. As all states have declared a state of emergency, hurricanes will be approaching areas that are already vulnerable.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, and ends on November 30th.
These are the names of the storms and hurricanes: Arthur, Bertha, Christobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, René, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.